Assessment of the consequences for critical sectors in Ukraine as a result of the 2014–2025 war

Abstract

This study assesses the consequences of risks for critical infrastructure using the risk matrix method. Objectives include analyzing risk assessment approaches, examining the destruction of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, and developing evaluation methods for potential threats. The research employs threat analysis, probabilistic risk assessment, and scenario modeling. The study develops an approach to risk assessment for critical infrastructure, considering military threats and cybersecurity challenges. The review highlights the destruction of energy and infrastructure facilities in Ukraine, emphasizing the need for enhanced protection. Research on cyber threats, such as the 2015 cyberattack on Ukraine’s power grid, demonstrates the necessity of modern security measures. The findings can aid in developing restoration strategies and reducing infrastructure vulnerability. The study also explores wartime disruptions to medical institutions, pharmacies, and clinics, classified as Insignificant, Moderate, Severe, or Catastrophic. Minor disruptions cause temporary shortages, while severe cases lead to healthcare system collapse, affecting emergency and routine care. The impact of wartime impacts on education, universities and research institutions has been assessed. Additionally, disruptions to water supply and sewage systems pose major public health risks, potentially leading to widespread disease outbreaks. These insights help policymakers and emergency planners mitigate wartime disruptions.